A Planet Under Siege

The spectacular meteor which assaulted the lower Ural Mountains in Russia last Friday has sparked a variety of thoughts.  It was the most dramatic event involving a meteor which I can remember occurring in my lifetime, although meteorites falling to Earth are extremely common and the large air bursts which can sometimes occur as a result generally happen every few years or so.

Residents in the area, most concentrated in the city of Chelyabinsk, were having a normal day on Friday morning, the 15th February.  Then the skies lit up in a dazzling burst of light which I believe briefly outshone the sun, and was comparable to the light emitted by nuclear explosions.  This fireball danced across the sky leaving a trail of large, white clouds.  This alone, while spectacular, would not have been anything hugely significant – I’ve seen similar meteors in my life, albeit nowhere near so bright.

It was the following air burst which would make international news worldwide.  Rather than read any flawed description I could come up with, simply watch the beginning of this video:

The effects were catastrophic.  Windows in over 300 buildings were shattered, doors blown open, alarms all over set off into a frenzy.  The roof of a zinc factory collapsed.  Over 1,000 people were injured, mostly from glass – many people would have been staring in awe through windows at the meteor at the time.  Mercifully nobody was killed by the meteor.  It is thought that this explosion had over 20 times more power than the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

In some bizarre cosmic idea of a joke, a separate meteor, the 2012 DA14, was already that day scheduled to pass closer to the Earth than had ever been recorded to pass before on the.  Although astronomers had ruled out any possibility of impact and, indeed, we’re all still here today, it was a terrifying coincidence and did make me feel as if the Earth were under siege that day.  I read a figure which stated that, if 2012 DA14 had showed up 15 minutes earlier, there’d currently be city-sized devastation somewhere in Southeast Asia.

But of course, we are always under siege.  Due to our atmosphere and erosion on the planet’s surface it may not be immediately clear, but many, many meteors have struck the planet before.  Most noticeable is the originally named Meteor Crater in Arizona, which has stayed preserved for tens of thousands of years.   There are so many chunks of rock and material orbiting the Sun which could wipe us out.  You might think that by now the solar system would have sorted itself out and would exist in harmony, but meteors are constantly changing orbits.  Just passing the Earth changed 2012 Da14’s orbit by something like 50 days.

“We’ve been okay up until now, so why would anything change?”
This is something I often think to calm fears of an impending catastrophe.  Then I remember how it is commonly accepted that a meteor was responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs, along with over half of all life on our planet.  Okay, that was 60 million years ago, but that is nothing when considering our planet is over 4 billion years old and multicellular life has existed for over 1 billion years.  Civilisation and humanity could easily be wiped out by a similar impact.

There’s even been dramatic occurrences within human history.  Russia seems particularly vulnerable to meteor attacks; I’m sure you will have heard of the Tunguska event, which happened in 1908.  Due to a lacking scientific presence in Russia at the time and the ensuing chaos of the First World War and the Russian Revolution and Civil War, no extensive study could be carried out until 1927.  What we do know was there was a massive explosion which is thought to have destroyed over 80 million trees over an area of 2,000 square kilometres.  Siberia was and still is a very sparsely inhabited place and so only one death was recorded.  Imagine the implications if a similar explosion had happened over London, Berlin or Moscow.  There could have been millions of casualties – history could have gone in a completely different direction.   We have never been safe.

Good news: astronomers believe they have accounted for about 98% of all asteroids capable of inflicting such damage.

Bad news: smaller asteroids capable of destroying cities are less well charted.  We might not even be aware of one until it sneaks up on us.

So, if we were to discover that an asteroid has turned kamikaze and wishes to wreak destruction upon our planet, what can be done?  There is the obvious idea – bomb it!  Despite being a modern answer to everything, bombing a meteor would be very risky because we simply have no idea what would happen.  Would the meteor fragment, or, since we may not know what the meteor is comprised of, could it be tough enough to stick together?  Would it break into smaller pieces and cause similar destruction anyway?  What would happen to its velocity – and therefore its potential energy?  We would also have to get over an international ban on the presence of nuclear weapons in space, which would be a diplomatic nightmare even with the face of imminent catastrophe.

Other options range from sticking a rocket onto an asteroid to change its orbit and thus deflect it from the Earth, to painting it white in order for the Sun’s rays to effect the orbit.

In other words, humanity has no effective plans in place to react to the discovery of a deadly asteroid.  Until we do, which I do not see as being very likely in the near future, our reaction to the discovery of an asteroid may simply be to avacuate the area at risk of being hit and to prepare for a catastrophic humanitarian disaster.  Until we develop efficient means of deflecting asteroids, this is a good as it gets.

Scientists don’t believe any large asteroids will pose a threat to us for a very long time.  Smaller ones, however, are very possible.  The highest near-future risk is the 2007 VK184, which currently has a 1 in 1,820 chance of colliding with the Earth in 2048.  However it is due to pass the Earth (at a safe distance) in just over a year’s time during May 2014, giving  us the chance to observe it and determine more accurately the threat it will pose.  Chances are we will then be able to rule out a collision.  However, there will certainly be future meteors hitting the Earth.  I expect to see several more events similar to those in Russia within my lifetime.

The Pope chose a really bad week to resign.

Useful link: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/02/201321212834710672.html

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A History of Communism: From Idealism to Tyranny

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The idea of Communism means many things to many people, and has evolved considerably since it was first developed by Karl Marx in his Communist Manifesto of 1848.  Marx saw Communism as a solution to the mass poverty and class structure which the capitalist system had created.  Most significantly, and this is where he parted from various socialist and liberal ideas, Marx believed the implementation of Communism had to be revolutionary.

I’m not an expert on his beliefs, and I’ll confess I’ve never read The Communist Manifesto – though it’s definitely high on my list of books to read.  However, I believe he advocated a state which would possess supreme power over the people in order to liberate the workers from extreme poverty and their ‘bourgeoisie’, upper class rulers.  To do this it would be necessary, if not desirable, to create a ‘dictatorship of the proletariat’, which would, in essence, follow the idea of a ‘benign dictator’.  Communism would not follow immediately, but this dictatorship would work towards the world revolution and eventually develop a stateless, classless world.  This is what Marx perceived to be true Communism.

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A depiction of revolutionary chaos in Berlin.

However, despite being formed in the euphoric hope of the doomed 1848 Revolutions, Marx’s ideas gained little traction during his lifetime.  He died in 1883 with the cause making little headway, though Marx maintained his belief that socialism was an inevitable stage in human development.  As the Europeans carved up Africa and created alliances, the ideas of Communism must have seemed fanatical.

Then, in the worldwide chaos caused by the First World War, everything changed.  In February 1917 the Russian monarchy collapsed after centuries of power in a complex series of events which, I will again admit, I have not deeply studied.  As German and Austrian soldiers advanced further and further into Russian territory, the people and soldiers protested and mutinied in what became a mass uprising against Tsar Nicholas II, who was forced to abdicate.  This was not a Communist revolution; Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the Communist party, lived in exile and returned upon hearing the news.  It was in a second revolution during October 1917 when the Communists took advantage of the power vacuum which followed Tsar rule and seized power in a coup.  Not, as future Russian propaganda would have you believe, in a united empowerment of the proletariat demanding Communist rule.

Lenin worked to introduce Marx’s ideas and established a Dictatorship of the Proletariat – with himself as chairman, of course.  A bloody civil war ensued, as the Communists (‘reds’) fought European-backed reactionary forces (‘whites’), resulting in a red victory.  The formation of the Soviet Union was complete, and the world’s first Communist State entered the world stage.  Half of Europe had been set ablaze during the First World War – in addition to the Russian Empire, the war saw the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire and the German Empire.  Dozens of new states were created and in this revolutionary chaos thrived many short-lived Communist governments, but as the dust settled Russia stood the only country in which Communists had managed to keep their grip on power.  (There was also a Communist government in Mongolia, which achieved independence with the help of the ‘Reds’ during the Russian Civil War, though this had very little influence).

So the Soviet Union stood alone.  Lenin died in 1924 and, after a struggle for power, Joseph Stalin became leader.  This struggle fractured a split in the Communist Party, as two sides formed led by Stalin and a man called Leon Trotsky.  Trotsky believed that socialist policies could not work alone in Russia, that Marx’s doctrine clearly stated a worldwide revolutionary was necessary to create Communism.  Stalin, in contrast, was throughout his life an extreme paranoiac and believed the Soviet Union vulnerable against its capitalist enemies, so felt the focus should be on building defences.  Stalin won and Trotsky was sent into exile, eventually to be assassinated on Stalin’s command in 1940.

Stalin’s Soviet Union saw unprecedented industrial, technological and demographic development.  The Soviet Union became the first state to lead an organised Industrial Revolution, in which the country worked by ‘Five Year Plans’ to determine the focus of development.  This led to a much faster development than the random and uncontrolled forces of capitalism which had driven development elsewhere in the world.

More significantly, in my opinion, Stalin’s rule marked the transition between idealism and tyranny in Communist belief.  This need not have happened.  Stalin’s paranoia led to the creation of a totalitarian state and a cult of personality, in which human rights were non-existent and a level of devotion close to worship was expected for the Communist Party and for Stalin himself.

The rise of Communism coincided with the rise of Fascism in Europe during the 1920s and 30s.  Italy, Germany, Portugal, Spain, and many other countries fell to the sway of Fascist leaders such as Hitler and Mussolini, imposing vast military rule upon their people and creating similar cults of personalities for the leaders.  It is said that if you could get Hitler and Stalin, bitter enemies, in a room together and avoid talk of economics, they would find much in common.  The creation of such brutal Fascist regimes created parallels with Stalin’s rule in the Soviet Union, with many critics labeling the Soviet Union as a Fascist regime itself.  There is certainly a strong argument for this claim.  Though not on the scale of The Holocaust, Stalin’s purges of anyone he perceived a threat led to the executions of millions of people.

This was how Communism would be defined during the second half of the century.  Once again it took a world war to make Communism a reality in many countries.  After the fall of Nazi Germany, Europe was carved up between the Allies and the Soviet Union.  The Soviet Union set up a series of puppet states making up the Eastern block, comprised of East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Albania.  To the east, Communists in China had won a bloody civil war after Japanese defeat in the Second World War, and the Korean War split Korea into two states, the north of which became ruled by a Communist government.  Communist also began spreading to the French colonies of southeast Asia, which would lead to the famous Vietnam War.

This spread of Communism led to a ‘Cold War’ forming between the liberal, capitalist forces of ‘The West’ headed by the USA, and the tyrannical, Communist forces of ‘The East’ headed by the Soviet Union.

Communism at its greatest extent in 1983.

The middle classes and landowners in capitalist countries were terrified of a Communist takeover, fearing land repossessions and reprisals, perhaps even threats to their lives.  And so a global war of power spheres, espionage, technological advancement and fear would define the 20th century; a war in every aspect besides the fighting.

And then, suddenly, Communism collapsed.  There are too many reasons for this collapse to go into in this blog, particularly as my understanding will be very limited.  I think the most significant factor was an economic crisis which brought the entire fragile system crashing down.  The Eastern block crumbled, ironically, during mass revolutions, and the Soviet Union split into a series of successor states not long afterwards.  Other than a handful of Communist States which survived in Asia, mostly reliant on China’s growing influence, and also Cuba, Communism has died a swift death.  Even these countries are increasingly accepting capitalism as a road to success.  Occasionally a Communist party will join a coalition government in some small country somewhere in the world, but as a major political force it is utterly spent.

So what are my thoughts on Communism?  If I had lived during the turmoil of the 20s following the First World War, in a period marked by extreme poverty, I would undoubtedly have been a Communist.  However as the totalitarian nature of Communist states became clearer, the Liberal within me must reject Communism.  It is an incredible idea, but human history has shown that whenever an individual is given power, however benevolent the reason, they will become corrupted.  Very often Communist states have exacerbated the poverty they were created to solve, while well-fed dictators think only of war and power.  Left-leaning institutions such as the welfare state have proven an effective means of lifting the majority out of poverty without imposing the extremes of Communism and this, I believe, is the path we ought to continue to follow.  Think of it as a diluted, safer form of Communism, achieving the same goals without the idealistic insanity.