The Fall of Julia Gillard

I often wish British politics could be as exciting as events I hear about in other democracies around the world.  Today began with the surprising announcement that former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (2007-2010; he led Labor to victory after 11 years of Liberal-National rule) was to challenge current Prime Minister Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party.  There have been challenges in the past which Rudd lost, but this particular challenge bears resemblance to events in 2010 where Gillard outmaneuvered Rudd and took his position as Labor leader, ultimately winning the election.

By 57 votes to 45, Rudd won the leadership vote and has become the new leader of the Labor party.  This doesn’t mean he is now the Prime Minister – Gillard still has to submit her resignation to the Governor-General before this could happen, and with an election due to be held possibly as early as August Rudd certainly wouldn’t have much time in power.  This result certainly does spell the end of Julia Gillard’s political career, however.  She announced that she will not seek re-election later this year and is set to retire from politics.  At least one of my 2013 predictions have come true.

So why did this happen?  This seems like an act of desperation from the Labor Party, which has been performing very poorly in opinion polls and has seemed certain to be facing defeat in the next election.  I don’t know a great deal about Australian politics but Gillard does seem a very unpopular figure, perhaps partly due to Australia’s poor economic performance and her terrible record on immigration.  Throwing migrants onto an island is a really bizarre idea.  My Australian cousins have certainly spoken about her negatively various times and a quick scan of the social networks reveals far more support for Rudd than Gillard.  So is this a last-ditch attempt of the Labor Party to save itself?  I suspect many Labor MPs feel he has a better change of leading the party to victory or, failing that, avoiding total wipe-out – and therefore making their own seats more secure.   Time will tell.

Having browsed the general policies of the main Australian political parties I think I’d probably be most inclined to support the Greens, who are currently in a formal alliance with Labor and, I’m glad to see, generally poll at around 10%.  But even with Green support I don’t think Labor is likely to win the election.

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Israeli Election Analysis

I’ve been far busier than I expected to be (if you ever study Advanced Higher History in Scotland, anticipate the amount of research you’ll have to do!), which is likely only to get worse for the next two weeks, so I apologise if this isn’t as in depth as I would like.  The matter is also incredibly complicated and I know woefully little, but here is a basic analysis of the Israeli election held on the 22nd January.

The results:

As you can see, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Beiteinu coalition did indeed win the most votes of any party, and by a large margin.  But this is Israeli politics where votes tend to be scattered among a large number of parties, so even the ‘winner’ of this election won less than a quarter of the popular vote, which corresponds to its particular influence.

Predictions for the election suggested that the Israeli electorate would shift into the far-right, with expectations that the Jewish Home party and orthodox Jewish parties would do well.  And while collectively these parties did gain around a quarter of the vote, the main winner of the election seems to have been the centrist party, Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, which is almost certain to be included within any potential coalition.  But even if Netanyahu does ally with Yesh Atid, which could easily happen despite their opposing views on Palestine and other issues*, they’ll collectively still only hold 50 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.  They could form a minority government, but with Israel’s divided and potentially unstable system this might be unwise.

Possibilities to complete this coalition with one more party would be with either Labor, The Jewish Home or Shas.  The most commonly cited party is The Jewish Home, though it stands opposed to Yesh Atid on many issues – such as forcing ultra-Orthodox Jews to serve in the armed forces – so it’s unclear how successful this would be.  I’m not sure why Labor hasn’t been touted as a greater possibility; perhaps because it disagrees with Likud Beiteinu on so many issues.  Neither side seems willing to engage with the Jewish religious factions.  The Liberals don’t have enough seats to join a coalition, and I can’t see the Arab parties being included.  But this process of negotiating the formation of a government could go on for months, and even then could end in failure and force a second election to take place.

So this could go any way.  I personally do not want The Jewish Home to be part of any potential government, though the surprising and welcome success of Yesh Atid may counteract the negative impact they could have.  Stay tuned!

*Netanyahu, going by his settlement policies, appears to support the one-state solution – i.e. that Israel takes control of the West Bank and incorporates it into its territory.  Lapid would prefer a two-state solution in which Palestine would achieve independence, though even he is in agreement that Israel should occupy the entirety of Jerusalem.