Tomorrow, the people of Israel will vote for their next government. The most significant election to happen in the region since President Morsi was elected in Egypt last June, the way the vote goes will have a profound effect on relations within the Middle East. Israel is arguably the most democratic country in the Middle East (unless you live in Palestine) and also has the most powerful military, currently being the only country to possess nuclear weapons.
The election will be held in the context of, as ever, a country which sees itself under siege. There is the old problem of Palestine, which will particularly be in the public mind after the occurance of what Israel terms ‘Operation Pillar of Defence’, though according to reports this is having a surprisingly small impact on the election. Most parties appear committed to Israel’s current covert strategy of slowly absorbing the territories and denying them of sovereignty; even the opposition, Labor, has been silent on the issue. Which is surprising, really, considering recent clashes, Palestine’s recent admission as a non-member observer state in the United Nations, and the government’s decision to build more settlements.
More significantly, the old foe Iran is perceived to be the greatest threat to Israeli security. Expected to soon reach nuclear weapon capabilities – though this is a highly contested statement – the debate in Israel is not if action should be taken in the event of Iran coming close to acquiring nuclear weapons, but the severity of that action. It’s no secret that Prime Minister Netanyahu, seeking re-election, would love to launch military strikes against Iran, but it’s less clear if he would do so without US support.
With things calmer on the northern border with Lebanon, Israel’s main secondary threat is now a consequence of the Arab Uprisings. It faces an Islamist-dominated government to the south in Egypt, which although seems dedicated to peace now may not always be. Egyptian instability has also resulted in the advancement of insurgents in the Sinai region, leading to another wall. To the east, Israel’s traditional foe from whom it still occupies territory, Syria, is wracked in a deadly civil war. On this issue Israel is torn; Syria is an ally of Iran so it may seem in their interests to support the rebellion, but this risks bringing radical Islamic extremists to power, who would be all but certain to oppose Israel’s very existence – at least they know where they stand with Assad. So it’s no surprise that Israel has stayed quiet, fearful of either outcome.
The debate within the election does seem to be mostly on the issue of defence and security, rather than the typical discussions on economic policies we’re seeing in Western countries at the moment. This election quiz by Al Jazeera, despite providing confusing results, gives an indication of which issues are being discussed in the current climate. It’s quite terrifying.
So how will the election go? The latest opinion poll has predicted 32% will go to Netanyahu’s coalition party Likud Beiteinu, which would make it the largest party in the Knesset despite having a combined 10% fewer votes than in 2009. Labor is polled at 17% – 4% more than in 2009. The ultra-nationalist, and frankly extremely dangerous ‘Jewish Home Party’ is polled at 12%. The remaining 39% is scattered among a variety of populist, Zionist and liberal parties. It is clear that Israel is a very divided society and no party will achieve a majority, meaning more extreme parties will play a ‘kingmaker’ role in forming coalitions. Although I am a supporter of proportional representation, I believe there is a strong argument to introduce a plurality system in Israel, considering the current political climate.
I expect Israel to continue down its current path after this election, with few changes in the near future.