Hello followers! Exam cycle has begun once more, and it’s a long one, dragging from now until very early June, so I may be distracted for some time (though, frankly, my most important exams will be done by the 20th). I would make a detailed comment on this year’s local elections, except firstly I don’t have the time, secondly I live in Scotland – so it’s not really any of my business – and thirdly, polling expert Anthony Wells has summed it up infinitely better than I could. So I’ll give you that link, and summarise his points:
- The seats up for election are very much ‘Tory seats’. Considering how well they did in 2009, during Labour’s “rock bottom” period the last time these seats were up, they’re almost certain to lose councillors. This isn’t necessarily a suggestion of ailing support for the Conservative Party.
- Most of the Liberal Democrat candidates will face their greatest threat from Conservatives, who they typically do well against, so there may be fewer losses here than the party has become accustomed to. Nick Clegg may finally have a good day.
- UKIP will undoubtedly see an increase in voting share, but it is uncertain how this will translate into actual seats. This could be a test for the growing party.